上半年增长121% 下半年仅增长23%？上美股份发布业绩预告

Shangmei Co. reported strong 2024 results but showed a marked slowdown in the second half.

1. Total revenue reached approximately RMB 6.7-6.9 billion, up 59.9%-64.7% year-on-year; net profit was about RMB 750-810 million, increasing 62.4%-75.4% YoY, with both revenue and profit roughly doubling.

2. Second-half revenue was lower than the first half for the first time, at RMB 3.198-3.398 billion, with only 22.82% YoY growth—significantly lower than the 120.67% growth in H1 and 84.23% growth in 2023—indicating weakening growth momentum.

3. Chairman Lu Yixiong set ambitious targets: RMB 10 billion by 2025 and RMB 30 billion by 2030. If the company maintains over 55% growth, it could achieve around RMB 10.4 billion revenue in 2025.

Growth trends reveal underlying risks.

1. Profit growth slowed from 236.8% in 2023 to 62.4% in 2024, with annual profit increases of roughly RMB 300 million, signaling steady but moderating growth.

2. Despite major e-commerce promotions like 618 and Double 11 concentrated in H2, revenue still fell short of H1, reflecting shifts in consumer behavior.

Consumer trends and user behavior indicate weakening effectiveness of major e-commerce sales events.

1. Despite major promotions in H2 (618, Double 11, Double 12), Shangmei's H2 revenue grew only 22.82% YoY and was lower than H1 for the first time, suggesting either fragmented purchasing power or intensified competition.

2. The company's 2024 revenue grew 59.9%-64.7% and profit grew 62.4%-75.4%, reflecting overall market potential, but the slowdown may necessitate brand strategy adjustments.

Insights for brand channel development.

1. High reliance on e-commerce, coupled with poor promotion performance, highlights the need to optimize omnichannel integration.

2. The chairman's ambitious targets (RMB 10B by 2025, RMB 30B by 2030) indicate significant industry growth potential, offering a model for other brands aiming for high growth rates.

Market opportunities for growth coexist with risk warnings.

1. Shangmei's 2024 revenue grew 59.9%-64.7% YoY, maintaining over 55% growth from 2022-2024, with a 2025 target of RMB 10 billion, indicating a high-growth potential market.

2. H2 revenue grew only 22.82% YoY, falling below H1 for the first time—a risk signal that the effectiveness of major e-commerce promotions may be waning, potentially impacting sales strategies.

Actionable insights and response measures.

1. The company's profit grows steadily by approximately RMB 300 million annually, though at a slowing pace, offering a model for stable growth.

2. The chairman's RMB 30 billion target by 2030 underscores the importance of long-term planning and adapting to evolving consumer demand.

Business opportunities indicate rising product demand.

1. Shangmei's revenue has doubled since 2022, with 2024 revenue estimated at 2.5-2.6 times the 2022 level and profit multiplying 5.5-5.9 times, signaling increased demand for cosmetic products.

2. Targets of RMB 10 billion by 2025 and RMB 30 billion by 2030 suggest sustained growth potential, presenting opportunities for production capacity expansion.

Lessons in digitalization and e-commerce.

1. Despite concentrated H2 e-commerce promotions, revenue growth slowed to 22.82% YoY, highlighting the need to optimize production planning to accommodate seasonal fluctuations.

2. Slowing profit growth to 62.4% signals the need for factories to monitor market shifts and adjust design requirements accordingly.

Industry trends point toward growth deceleration.

1. Shangmei's H2 revenue grew only 22.82% YoY, far below H1's 120.67% and 2023's 84.23%, reflecting a slowdown in the cosmetics industry.

2. 2024 profit growth fell from 236.8% to 62.4%, though annual profit increased by roughly RMB 300 million, indicating industry resilience amid growing challenges.

Identifying client pain points and solutions.

1. Major e-commerce promotions like 618 and Double 11 underperformed, with H2 revenue declining—a key pain point is diminishing promotional appeal.

2. Solution insight: Service providers can develop tools to optimize promotion strategies, helping clients navigate growth volatility.

E-commerce platform challenges and opportunities are highlighted.

1. Despite major H2 promotions (618, Double 11), Shangmei's H2 revenue grew only 22.82% YoY and was lower than H1 for the first time, indicating potential platform attractiveness issues or promotional inefficacy.

2. The company's targets (RMB 10B by 2025, RMB 30B by 2030) are achievable with sustained >55% growth, suggesting platforms should enhance merchant partnerships to capture growth.

Platform operation management and risk mitigation.

1. Growth slowdown risks necessitate optimized promotion operations to mitigate seasonal volatility.

2. Latest practices insight: Platforms can leverage company data to refine merchant acquisition strategies and boost appeal.

Industry developments reveal growth deceleration challenges.

1. Shangmei's H2 2024 revenue grew only 22.82% YoY, falling below H1 for the first time—a new issue suggesting weakened e-commerce promotion impact, potentially due to market saturation or consumer fatigue.

2. Maintaining >55% growth from 2022-2024 and targeting RMB 10 billion by 2025 indicate industry potential, but growth slowing from 236.8% to 62.4% signals intensifying challenges.

Business model and policy implications.

1. Over-reliance on e-commerce amid poor results highlights the need for innovative multi-channel strategies.

2. The chairman's RMB 30 billion target provides a research case study, suggesting a focus on long-term policy support to sustain growth.